International Consultant for Evidence-Based Policy Development: Analysis of the findings of the MICS7 and Fertility Aspirations Survey

International Consultant for Evidence-Based Policy Development: Analysis

of the findings of the MICS7 and Fertility Aspirations Survey

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. In Turkmenistan, UNFPA collaborates with the Government and national partners to support the collection, analysis, and utilization of population data to inform strategic planning.

Turkmenistan is currently situated in a phase of demographic transition. The 2022 Complete Digital Population and Housing Census revealed a population of approximately 7 million, characterized by a significant "youth bulge" (34.9% under age 15) and a peak working-age cohort (57%). To maximize this potential and ensure long-term demographic resilience, the Government requires precise, disaggregated evidence to bridge the gap between statistical findings and actionable policy.

Two major data milestones form the basis of this consultancy: the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS7) and the Fertility Aspirations Survey (FAS). While MICS7 provides statistically robust, internationally comparable data on the status of women and children, the FAS offers unique qualitative insights into the drivers of fertility, family-building intentions, and socio-economic barriers.

The 7th round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS7) in Turkmenistan was implemented by the State Statistics Committee with technical and financial support from UNICEF and UNFPA. Data collection was successfully conducted between January and April 2024, covering approximately 6,800 households across all five provinces (velayats) and Ashgabat city. This round introduced expanded modules, including a dedicated questionnaire for men and enhanced indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Following the official release of the national findings in 2025, the focus has shifted from data collection to high-level policy application. While the national report provides a broad overview, there is a need for deeper sub-national analysis to address regional disparities in maternal health, child wellbeing, and reproductive rights. 

Complementing the quantitative breadth of MICS7, UNFPA supported the Ministry of Health and Medical Industry and the State Statistics Committee in launching the first-ever national Fertility Aspirations Survey (FAS). Fieldwork for the FAS is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026, targeting diverse cohorts of men and women of reproductive age. This qualitative and quantitative inquiry was designed to move beyond traditional birth rates to understand the "intentions-realization gap"—the difference between the number of children people desire and the number they actually have. 

The objective of this consultancy is to develop targeted, evidence-based and operational policy outputs that translate MICS7 findings and FAS insights into actionable recommendations to support national and subnational decision-making, planning, and advocacy.

The purpose of this consultancy is 1) translating the recent Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS7) results into sub-national (province) profiles with recommendations for addressing the gaps with regards to RH and GBV; 2) interpreting the findings of the Fertility Aspirations Survey (FAS) fieldwork to produce a comprehensive national report on fertility drivers and family-friendly policies.

The consultancy places strong emphasis on data-to-policy translation, ensuring that statistical and qualitative findings are transformed into prioritized, feasible, and context-specific interventions.

The consultancy consists of two complementary analytical components, which will result in distinct outputs but must ultimately be integrated into a unified policy narrative.

Task 1. Sub-national MICS7 Data-to-Policy Analysis

1.1. Inception and Data Review - 3 days

• Review MICS7 datasets and the pre-prepared comparative analysis (MICS6 vs MICS7).
• Identify priority findings requiring further interpretation and policy translation for defined key indicators aligned with the UNFPA mandate (e.g., ANC, skilled birth attendance, adolescent birth rate, unmet need for family planning, violence against women and girls).
• Develop analysis methodology and workplan.

1.2. Analysis by provinces and disparity mapping - 5 days

• Conduct subnational analysis using disaggregated data.
• Identify key trends, disparities, and priority issues across provinces.
• Analyze equity gaps across key dimensions, including wealth quintile, education level, urban/rural residence, age, and sex.
• Highlight population groups and geographic areas with the greatest vulnerabilities.

1.3. Development of Regional MICS7 Profiles and Policy Recommendations - 6 days

• Develop profiles for each province (Ahal, Balkan, Dashoguz, Lebap, Mary, Ashgabat and Arkadag)
• For each province:
  • Identify priority issues
  • Interpret trends (MICS6 vs MICS7)
  • Analyze plausible underlying drivers
  • Develop actionable recommendations, categorized as: policy/legislative; programmatic/service delivery; community and/or behavioral interventions
• Define clear advocacy messages and target stakeholders

1.4. Consolidation and Validation - 5 days

• Review and communicate the draft products to ensure recommendations are:
  • Feasible and operational.
  • Context-specific.
  • Aligned with national strategies (e.g., National Health Programme), and UNFPA’s country and global commitments.
• Incorporate feedback from UNFPA and key national stakeholders (e.g., Ministry of Health, State Statistics Committee).
• Finalize all Task 1 deliverables based on the consolidated feedback.

Task 2. Fertility Aspirations Survey (FAS) Analysis

2.1. Data Interpretation and Thematic Coding – 3 days

• Review FAS documentation, including questionnaires.
• Develop a tabulation plan outlining key variables, cross-tabulations, and analytical dimensions required for the analysis
• Review the tabulated data outputs and available qualitative summaries/excerpts.
• Identify recurring themes and key barriers to fertility, and categorize the findings into key thematic pillars, such as economic, housing availability, work-life balance, gender roles within the family, and access to reproductive health information etc.
• Analyze the intentions-realization gap (i.e., the gap between desired and actual number of children).

2.2. Causal Triangulation and Contextual Analysis – 3 days

• Triangulate FAS findings with quantitative trends identified in Task 1 (MICS7) to provide a causal narrative for sub-national variations in fertility and unmet need for family planning.
• Analyze how social norms and traditional values intersect with modern socio-economic aspirations across different age cohorts and regions.
• Identify key vulnerability profiles (e.g., youth, young couples, rural households, urban populations) facing barriers to achieving desired family size.

2.3: Drafting the National FAS Report and Policy Menu – 4 days

• Produce the Comprehensive FAS National Report, documenting the primary drivers of fertility aspirations and family-building in Turkmenistan.
• Clearly document key drivers, barriers, and emerging trends
• Develop a set of family-friendly policy options and recommendations, ensuring:
  • Alignment with national context and priorities
  • Practical applicability
  • Linkages to findings from both FAS and MICS

2.4: Integrated Policy Synthesis and Strategic Outputs – 5 days

• Synthesize findings from MICS7 subnational analysis and FAS results into a coherent and unified evidence-based narrative.
• Develop high-level advocacy messages for senior policymakers, linking fertility aspirations to socio-economic development
• Finalize the FAS report and integrated outputs based on feedback from UNFPA and national partners
• Prepare a strategic presentation summarizing key findings, national priorities, and recommended actions for high-level dialogue and advocacy.

Deliverable 1. A detailed methodology and workplan outlining the analytical framework, timeline, and proposed structure of the analysis, including a tabulation plan for the Fertility Aspirations Survey (FAS) to guide preparation of datasets and outputs (May 20th, 2026).

Deliverable 2. Policy-oriented analytical summary on sub-national trends and disparities, synthesizing key regional findings from MICS7 data across the provinces and Ashgabat/Arkadag city, including comparative insights from MICS6 (June 15th, 2026)

Deliverable 3. National analytical report on fertility aspirations interpreting the findings from the FAS fieldwork, documenting the primary socio-economic and behavioral drivers of fertility and the intentions-realization gap (July 10th, 2026)

Deliverable 4. A set of sub-national demographic profiles and policy papers translating MICS7 and FAS findings into actionable interventions, featuring regional bottleneck analysis and targeted recommendations for local and national stakeholders. (designed to be reader-oriented, visually appealing, and ready for utilization and distribution) (July 30th, 2026)

Deliverable 5. Final consultancy report and strategic presentation summarizing national priorities, cross-cutting actions, and a comparative overview of sub-national disparities to inform high-level national dialogue and advocacy (August 15, 2026)

All deliverables must be policy-oriented, clear, concise, and reader-friendly, with visual elements (tables, charts, and infographics) where appropriate, formatted for ease of distribution and ready for use by national stakeholders and development partners.

The UNFPA Turkmenistan Head of Office and Programme Coordination Associate will monitor the International Consultant’s work through reviewing submitted materials. The consultant will provide an update on progress by email, on challenges encountered and support needed on a weekly basis or ad-hoc upon need. 

Ethical Considerations

UNFPA requires its consultants to adhere to ethical principles and standards when doing research. The selected consultant should clearly identify any potential ethical issues and approaches, as well as the processes for ethical review in the inception report.

National Ownership

The involvement of appropriate national partners will be a critical condition for the development of all the consultancy outcome materials in ensuring stakeholder ownership and its subsequent utilisation.

• Advanced university degree in Demography, Economics, Statistics, Sociology, or a related field is required.
• A minimum of 7 years of professional experience in conducting policy-oriented research, data analysis, monitoring and evaluation, or policy development in the social sector.
• Proven experience working with MICS, DHS (Demographic and Health Surveys), or similar large-scale household survey datasets is mandatory.
• Demonstrated experience in translating complex statistical data into readable, actionable policy papers or briefs for government audiences.
• Experience working in Central Asia or similar cultural contexts is an asset
• Experience working with Government organisations and/or international organizations is an asset
• Fluency in oral and written English. Knowledge of Russian is an advantage.

The consultancy fee will be calculated based on the P-4 level of the of the UN Salary Scale for Professional and higher categories effective 1 January 2026 and will be paid in a lump sum upon successful completion of deliverables.